- California lost more than 500,000 residents in the last three years, but it also gained more college graduates and high-income earners than any other state, according to census data and a new report by the Public Policy Institute of California.
- The report found that California’s net migration loss was driven by lower-income and less-educated residents leaving for more affordable states, while higher-income and more-educated residents continued to move in from other states and countries.
- The report also found that California’s population decline was partly offset by natural increase (births minus deaths) and that the state’s racial and ethnic diversity continued to grow.
Why it matters: California’s population trends have significant implications for its economy, politics, and society. The state needs to address the challenges of housing affordability, income inequality, and social mobility that affect its residents’ quality of life and future prospects.
The big picture: California has long been a magnet for people seeking opportunities and innovation, but it has also faced some difficulties and trade-offs. The state has to balance its environmental and social goals with its fiscal and business realities, as well as its role and influence in the nation and the world.
By the numbers:
- California’s population shrank by 1.4% from 2021 to 2023, the largest decline in the state’s history, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
- California’s net migration loss was 1.1 million from 2021 to 2023, but it was partly offset by a net migration gain of 600,000 from other countries, according to the Public Policy Institute of California.
- California’s share of college graduates increased by 1.6% from 2021 to 2022, and its share of high-income earners ($100,000 or more) increased by 1.3%, according to the Public Policy Institute of California.
What they’re saying:
- “California is still attracting the well-off and well-educated, who value its amenities, diversity, and innovation. But it is also losing the less-affluent and less-educated, who struggle with its high costs, congestion, and competition,” said Hans Johnson, senior fellow at the Public Policy Institute of California and co-author of the report, in a statement.
- “California is facing a demographic crisis, as it loses its middle class, its young families, and its workforce. The state needs to reform its taxes, regulations, and policies to make it more affordable, livable, and business-friendly,” said Joel Kotkin, presidential fellow in urban futures at Chapman University and executive director of the Houston-based Urban Reform Institute, in an interview.
- “California is undergoing a demographic transformation, as it becomes more diverse, educated, and globalized. The state needs to invest in its human capital, infrastructure, and institutions to make it more inclusive, resilient, and sustainable,” said Manuel Pastor, professor of sociology and American studies and ethnicity at the University of Southern California and director of the Equity Research Institute, in an interview.
What’s next: California’s population trends are expected to continue in the near future, as the state faces the impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic, the climate crisis, and the changing political landscape. The state will also have to adjust to the loss of a congressional seat and an electoral vote for the first time in its history, due to the 2020 census results.
